Motivation

PalMod is a modeling project aiming at understanding the spectrum of climate variability from the last interglacial, through the last glacial to the present and at projecting the climate of the next millennia with comprehensive Earth system models under different scenarios.

The motivation of PalMod relies on the following assumption: if we could successfully simulate the spectrum of climate variability during the last glacial cycle, such a simulation might enable us to more reliably assess the future climate and to assess whether, for example, a regime shift in the variability or abrupt events could occur during the next centuries and millennia in response to global warming. Will the future climate be more or less variable, and what is the probability of rapid climate transitions? Could polar ice sheets collapse catastrophically? How quickly can sea level rise under present and future climate conditions? What is the potential for rapid carbon release from thawing permafrost in a warming world? To this end, PalMod aims at filling knowledge gaps about climate processes and climate modeling, in particular with respect to non-linear behavior and long-term feedbacks that may become important as the Earth’s surface temperature continues to warm due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

PalMod started in 2015 and was designed for 10 years, with three funding cycles - in 2023 we reached the last Phase III.