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IOSC

Topic 1

Feedbacks, thresholds, and abrupt changes in the Earth System dynamics during the last deglaciation and in the future

Focus: The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate-ecological-social systems.

We invite contributions on all topics relating to feedbacks, thresholds, and abrupt changes in the Earth system, as well as their interaction and cascading effects in the past and their implications for the future. This includes dynamics and interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, the cryosphere, large-scale ecosystems, and the carbon cycle. We are interested in methodological approaches, from Earth system modelling and data analysis of nonlinearities, tipping points and abrupt shifts in the Earth system.

Topic 2

Spectrum of climate variability

Focus: The Earth’s climate is highly variable on all spatial and temporal scales. Changes in the variability (spatial and regional) can impact energy transfers processes between and within the climate components with consequences for the sensitivity of the climate system and transfer processes between mean climate states (e.g.glacial to interglacial to present to future). 

We invite contributions addressing the role of ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere, and land-surface processes in fostering long-term climate variability through linear – or nonlinear – feedbacks and mechanisms, the interaction of external forcing (e.g. orbital forcing) and internal variability as mechanisms for synchronization and pacing glacial cycles. Moreover, we encourage contributions on the forced response and natural variability of the general circulation, understanding present-day climate and past and future changes, and impacts of global features and change on regional climate.

Topic 3

Cryosphere-climate interactions

Focus: The Arctic Realm is changing rapidly and the fate of the cryosphere, including Arctic Sea ice, glaciers and ice caps, is a source of concern. Through various processes linking the atmosphere, ice and ocean, the change in the Arctic realm may modify the atmospheric and ocean circulation at regional to global scales, the freshwater budget of the ocean and deep-water formation as well as the marine and terrestrial ecosystems, including productivity.

We invite contributions from a range of disciplines and across time scales, including observational (satellite and instrumental) data, historical data, geological archives and proxy data, model simulations and forecasts, for the past, present and future climate focusing on a better understanding of mechanisms and feedbacks on short to long time scales that drive Arctic and subarctic changes and their impact on climate, ocean and environmental conditions, at regional to global scales.

Topic 4

Novel methodological aspects of long-term simulations and reconstructions